Predictors of success in a greening world

Predictors of success in a greening world

2 December 2021

A new study by the University of Oxford and Lombard Odier has found that Germany, the USA and China are the countries set to benefit most from the ongoing transition to a green economy. 'Predictors of Success in a Greening World' provides a global, 25-year-long perspective on countries’ standing in global trade in high-growth green industries, and the extent to which each country has adequately directed their Covid-19 recovery spending to “build back greener”.


The report's key finding are

  • Germany, Italy, Spain, the USA and China are among the countries set to benefit most from the green transition, owing to their strong existing green manufacturing and technological capabilities

  • Countries such as Australia and the UAE have been laggards in the past, owing to their overreliance on fossil fuel exports. However, Australia possesses immense renewable energy potential and the UAE has shown a clear intent to diversify their production capability resulting in recent increases in green competitiveness and potential

  • The global competitive landscape is not static, and differences in post-pandemic recovery spending could drive changes in green capacities in the future. For some highly-ranked GCI  Page 2/3 countries like the Netherlands and Italy, green recovery spending is relatively low, less than 0.1% of their GDP. Others, like the US, Germany and China, have invested up to 1% of their GDP into green recovery investments.


At the report's launch, Cameron Hepburn said: “Providing the foundational research and frameworks for solutions to achieve net zero emissions and sustainable development is at the heart of our mission, and we are proud to partner with Lombard Odier on this report. It should serve as a wakeup call to the “laggards”; they are not just holding back efforts to combat climate change, but missing valuable opportunities to benefit from the transition.”

Photo by Timothy Dykes on Unsplash